Friday, May 20, 2011

Preakness Preview

Just two weeks after Animal Kingdom's triumph at Churchill Downs, the second leg of the Triple Crown has arrived. Only five horses that ran the Derby are back for the Preakness, and the new unknowns mean there should be some excellent value among the 14-horse field. Here's a rundown of the field:


3 - King Congie (20-1): Should be fresh after a 5-week break; Albarado getting a chance in the Triple Crown after losing his mount on Animal Kingdom is a nice story; good value?
6 - Sway Away (15-1): I'm a fan of his pedigree (Afleet Alex) and jockey (Gomez); consistently solid (although he hasn't won in a while)
9 - Mucho Macho Man (6-1): Nice closing performance at the Derby; should be in the mix at the end
11 - Animal Kingdom (2-1): Rooting for the possibility of a Triple Crown, but not much value if he's over-bet
13 - Concealed Identity (30-1): Another pedigree I like (Smarty Jones); longshot, but has home track advantage, and could be a tremendous payout


1 - Astrology (15-1): Consistent solid results, but nothing special?
7 - Midnight Interlude (15-1): Can't do any worse than his 16th place finish at the Derby, right?
8 - Dance City (12-1): Kind of an unknown, but ran well at the Arkansas Derby
10 - Dialed In (9-2): I don't see much betting value after he finished 8th in the Derby as the favorite

Stay Aways

2 - Norman Asbjornson (30-1): Has been outmatched in stakes races; I do think it's kind of cool that he's named after a real person, though
4 - Flashpoint (20-1): Minimal experience, first time race under new trainer
5 - Shackleford (12-1): Derby's slow pace was exactly what he wanted, but still only finished 4th?
12 - Isn't He Perfect (30-1): Lots of experience, but has not performed in stakes races
14 - Mr. Commons (20-1): Little experience, new jockey

Here are the bets I would consider...let's hope I do better than my suggested Derby bets:

$2 Win: 6 (Sway Away), 9 (Mucho Macho Man)
$2 Show: 3 (King Congie), 13 (Concealed Identity)
$1 Exacta Box: 6, 9, 11 (Sway Away, Mucho Macho Man, Animal Kingdom)
$1 Exacta Box: 9, 11, 13 (Mucho Macho Man, Animal Kingdom, Concealed Identity)
$1 Trifecta Box: 6, 9, 11
$0.10 Superfecta Box: 6, 9, 11, 13

Total Bets: $28.40


Thanks. I'll give this a shot -- I just bet $10 on Sway Away and Mucho Macho Man.

If it doesn't work out, you owe me $10.

I guess jlau you owe mok $10 =P Animal kingdom almost had it... another year another failed triple crown...

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